With JAWS 16, IE and Chrome have a problem that you describe, but FF 38 is working correctly (not sure about previous versions of FF). When I go to the link where <li> has aria-disabled="true" and there is no aria-disabled = "true" on <a> , FF 38 and JAWS 16 say "previous page inaccessible link".
Actually, this does not stop me from activating this link because it is not something that is disabled for the aria, but JAWS seems to know that the child is disabled because the parent is disabled.
It also works in VoiceOver on iOS 8.3 on ipad2. VO says "previous page dimmed link"
This may be the case when you need to decide whether to store the correctly formatted html and let the user agent fix the error, or if you try to create code around the problem, which in your case puts the aria-disabled on the link itself.
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