This problem is a combination of two problems:
- recognition of one character from your data
- word recognition from a (noisy) character sequence
A HMM is used to find the most likely sequence of a finite number of discrete states from noisy measurements. This is precisely Problem 2, since the sequence follows the measured measurements of discrete states az, 0-9.
For problem 1, HMM is useless because you are not interested in the basic sequence. You want to increase your handwritten number with information about how you wrote it.
Personally, I would start by introducing the usual modern handwriting recognition, which is already very good (with convolutional neural networks or deep learning). After that, you can add information about how it was written, for example, clockwise / counterclockwise.
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