probably means that the browser can play the described media type. maybe means the type can be played. This is usually due to the fact that the described type of media is not well defined to make a decision.
For example, the audio/ogg type may or may not be reproducible, because Ogg is a container type that can contain several different codecs. Vorbis and Opus are two Ogg-contained codecs. The browser’s ability to play Ogg files says nothing at all about the browser’s ability to play in Vorbis or Opus code, so it cannot tell if it can play your Ogg file.
If you ask about a specific codec with audio/ogg; codecs=vorbis audio/ogg; codecs=vorbis , then the browser can tell you for sure if it can play this type.
To make an analogy: suppose you ask me if I can drive your boat. I am good at managing tiny speedboats, but I can't control a huge cruise ship. I have to answer the question: "Can you drive my boat?" with Maybe because you didn’t tell me which boat.
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