With no arguments, the function math.randomreturns a number in the range [0,1].
Lua 5.1.4 Copyright (C) 1994-2008 Lua.org, PUC-Rio
> =math.random()
0.13153778814317
> =math.random()
0.75560532219503
So just convert your "chance" to a number from 0 to 1: i.e.
> function maybe(x) if math.random() < x then print("yes") else print("no") end end
> maybe(0.5)
yes
> maybe(0.5)
no
Or multiply the result randomby 100 to compare with int in the range 0-100:
> function maybe(x) if 100 * math.random() < x then print(1) else print(0) end end
> maybe(50)
0
> maybe(10)
0
> maybe(99)
1
- math.random:
> function maybe(x) if math.random(0,100) < x then print(1) else print(0) end end
> maybe(0)
0
> maybe(100)
1