If you need to find the exact value that will be returned for user.home in the java program when it is run under the same user account, you must run the java program to get the value. There is no guaranteed stable mapping to anything else in Windows for this purpose, and the currently used display is incorrect, and it is unlikely to be altered in the long run.
This error record describes how user.home actually gets this value at the moment and discusses several alternatives that might be more appropriate: http://bugs.sun.com/view_bug.do?bug_id=4787931
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