There is no simple metric that will tell you the answer - it depends not only on the amount of data, the number of transactions, but also on the nature of replication - the number of replicated sites, the required replication speed, etc.
Yes, the large-scale clSuter noSQL can bring out aaa MySQL cluster built for the same budget for OLTP, however it is called noSQL for some reason - when you need to start doing something useful with data, the relational model and SQL language do the cutting and cutting data is much easier. OTOH, at some point, OLAP then overtakes the relational model in terms of performance, but I think it would be quite difficult to use a data warehouse to process transactions.
Thus, it is possible that application functional requirements outgrow the capabilities of the noSQL database much faster than redundant requriements outgrow the relational database.
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