The answer may depend on which OTA server you are using.
If you use your own OTA server like me, then the problem may be your URL.
I saw the same "Can not connect to ..." error today with my personal OTA server. The problem was the itms-services URL.
itms-services://?action=download-manifest&url=https://3ea1be94.ngrok.com/TestApp.plist
.plist file .plist and host name for my &url= parameter. As soon as I corrected them and updated the page, everything was in order.
If you use your own OTA server, make sure the &url= parameter is accurate and make sure it uses HTTPS. If you are not using your own OTA server, contact the person who runs it as they can help.
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